Terrified Putin 'running out of time' as he turns his eyes towards NATO

Russia’s Hybrid Warfare Against NATO Reflects Growing Desperation Amid Economic and Strategic Decline

Russia’s escalating hybrid attacks on NATO countries reveal a growing sense of urgency and desperation within the Kremlin. Analysts say President Vladimir Putin is racing against time to secure a decisive outcome before Western sanctions, NATO unity, and Russia’s deepening economic troubles close his window of opportunity.

According to Dr. Nigel Gould-Davies, Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Moscow now fears that “time may no longer be on its side.” With sanctions biting deeper, Western military coordination tightening, and domestic pressures mounting, the Kremlin appears to be taking greater risks than ever before.

“Since Russia can no longer count on waiting out the West, it is challenging European resolve in riskier and more aggressive ways,” Dr. Gould-Davies explained. “Unless Europe responds firmly, escalation is inevitable.”

His remarks come amid a surge in Russian drone incursions, cyberattacks, and GPS-jamming incidents targeting NATO member states across Northern Europe. Air defenses in Poland, Denmark, and the Baltic nations have been repeatedly activated in recent weeks an alarming reminder of Cold War-style brinkmanship returning to Europe’s skies.

NATO commanders now describe this as the most sustained series of Russian provocations in decades, underscoring a dangerous pattern of hybrid warfare that blends cyber aggression, disinformation, and covert sabotage with traditional military intimidation.

Dr. Gould-Davies argues that these actions are no coincidence, but the result of four major shifts reshaping Moscow’s strategic outlook.

1. Changing U.S. Policy Under President Trump

Initially, the Kremlin had high hopes for Donald Trump’s return to the White House, anticipating that his calls for an immediate end to the war might divide Western allies. However, despite nine months of negotiations and the much-publicized Alaska Summit in August 2025, those expectations have not materialized.

While Washington’s rhetoric has softened, the United States continues to arm Ukraine, maintaining pressure on Moscow and frustrating Putin’s hopes for a favorable peace deal.

2. Europe’s New Era of Rearmament

The NATO summit in June 2025 marked a historic turning point for Europe’s defense strategy. Member states agreed to raise defense spending to five percent of GDP by 2035, a move that would give the Alliance a tenfold economic edge over Russia.

At the same time, the European Union has expanded its sanctions regime, approving four new packages this year and finalizing a €140 billion reparation fund for Ukraine, financed through frozen Russian Central Bank assets. These steps highlight a determined European effort to sustain Ukraine and deter further Russian aggression.

3. China’s Complicated Alliance with Moscow

While China’s growing alignment with Russia has provided short-term relief for Putin, it has also deepened Moscow’s long-term dependence on Beijing. The recent approval of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, which will double Russia’s gas exports to China, illustrates this imbalance.

NATO has labeled Beijing a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war, and experts warn that should Moscow falter militarily, it could become a junior partner in the relationship a scenario that might eventually weaken Putin’s geopolitical leverage.

4. Russia’s Economy Under Strain

Dr. Gould-Davies describes Russia’s economic situation as being “cut by two blades war and sanctions.” Real interest rates are now among the highest globally, the labor market is under severe strain, and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries are causing widespread disruption.

These combined pressures, he says, are driving Russia to take “ever greater risks to accelerate a victory that keeps slipping from its grasp.” The Kremlin’s urgency is not just strategic it is existential.

A Dangerous Moment for NATO and Europe

As the war drags on and Moscow’s options narrow, the risk of miscalculation is becoming alarmingly real. Yet experts insist that NATO must hold its ground.

In a clear warning to Western leaders, Dr. Gould-Davies concluded:

“To fear escalation is to invite it.”

The coming months may prove decisive not just for Ukraine, but for the future stability of Europe itself. Russia’s hybrid warfare campaign shows that the Kremlin’s desperation could be as dangerous as its ambition.