Five nations on edge as Trump administration threatens military action and intervention

Donald Trump has been back in the White House for less than a year, yet the opening days of 2026 have already sent shockwaves through foreign capitals. Allies and adversaries alike are scrambling to reassess what the rest of his presidency may bring, as US foreign policy pivots sharply toward confrontation, unpredictability, and raw power politics.

That sense of global unease appears intentional. The sudden US military operation in Venezuela culminating in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro was not merely about resetting relations with Caracas. It functioned as a warning shot to the rest of the world. In the days that followed, Trump publicly turned his attention toward other nations, most notably Colombia and Cuba, signaling that Venezuela may not be an isolated case.

Greenland Raises Alarm Bells Across Europe

Perhaps the most unsettling development for Europe has been the renewed and intensified rhetoric around Greenland. Trump and senior figures in his orbit have openly revived the idea of asserting US control over the territory despite it being administered by Denmark, a NATO ally. For many European governments, this has crossed from provocation into outright threat, raising uncomfortable questions about whether alliance commitments still restrain Washington’s ambitions.

Trump has also floated the possibility of military action against Nigeria, citing alleged abuses against Christian communities, and against Iran, following harsh crackdowns on protests. These warnings reinforce a growing perception that the administration is increasingly willing to frame internal unrest abroad as justification for intervention.

A Break From Diplomatic Tradition

These moves were foreshadowed late last year, when the administration unveiled a new national security strategy that discarded decades of diplomatic convention. Among its most controversial elements was a stated willingness to actively support right-wing political movements in Europe, with the explicit aim of reshaping governments aligned more closely with Washington’s worldview.

Equally striking has been the administration’s unapologetic merging of foreign policy with commercial interests. Business deals involving energy, minerals, and real estate are now routinely linked to US-led negotiations, including proposed peace frameworks in conflict zones such as Gaza and Ukraine. For career diplomats, this transactional approach represents a profound departure from long-standing norms.

NATO, Russia, and a Growing Sense of Instability

It feels distant now, but at the NATO summit last June, several alliance leaders praised Trump for his decisiveness after US airstrikes on Iran. Many hoped that same willingness to use force would deter attacks on long-standing allies. In some respects, that expectation remains intact.

Large-scale US-coordinated military exercises now stretch from the Arctic to the Pacific, reinforcing America’s central role in deterring Russia in Europe and countering China in Asia. Meanwhile, the US has approved a record-breaking arms package for Taiwan, triggering an angry response from Beijing. China’s simulated blockade drills and renewed warnings about “reunification by force” underscore how rapidly tensions are escalating.

In Europe, concerns are compounded by reports that Russia has deployed Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missiles to Belarus, placing cities like London within minutes of potential strike range. Against this backdrop, the war in Ukraine is increasingly viewed as a preview of a far wider conflict.

Ukraine and Trump’s Tilt Toward Moscow

Trump’s handling of Ukraine has deepened unease across Europe. US financial aid has been halted, weapons deliveries sharply reduced, and intelligence cooperation temporarily cut including critical targeting support. At the same time, Kyiv has faced sustained pressure to accept peace proposals widely seen as favoring Moscow, including demands to cede territory not yet occupied by Russian forces.

Although the administration has occasionally imposed secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian oil and gas, it remains unclear whether further pressure will follow. Trump’s long-standing belief that he can personally manage relations with the Kremlin an idea dating back to the 1980s continues to shape policy. While he denies allegations of past Russian interference in his political rise, he regularly emphasizes his ability to “get along” with Vladimir Putin.

China and the Return of Strategic Ambiguity

On China, policy remains fluid. Trump has signaled interest in a broad deal with President Xi Jinping, extending beyond trade. Their first in-person meeting of this term took place in South Korea late last year, though little is known about what was discussed.

Tariff disputes continue to strain relations, particularly after China restricted exports of rare minerals vital to US industry and defense manufacturing. While some concessions were reportedly promised, many American companies say supply chains remain under pressure.

Most notably, the administration has stepped back from the previous US commitment to explicitly defend Taiwan. Returning to “strategic ambiguity,” Trump has reversed the clear pledge made under President Biden, even as reports suggest the number of US personnel on the island now exceeds 500. With Beijing rapidly expanding its military capabilities, both sides increasingly act as though a future confrontation is inevitable.

Colombia and Cuba Back in Washington’s Crosshairs

Trump has hinted that Colombia could be the next focus of US military action, accusing President Gustavo Petro of direct involvement in drug trafficking. The rhetoric closely mirrors justifications used in Venezuela, though Colombia’s stronger military and Petro’s vow to resist complicate any potential intervention.

Cuba has also re-entered the spotlight. Trump has claimed its government is “ready to fall,” echoing decades of failed US efforts to force regime change on the island. With Venezuela historically supplying Cuba’s energy needs, any disruption could push Havana toward severe economic crisis. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has made clear he sees Cuba’s leadership as vulnerable.

Canada, Mexico, and a Fractured Neighborhood

Relations with America’s closest neighbors are equally strained. Trump has chastised Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, and warned that designating drug cartels as terrorist organizations could justify US military action inside Mexico. Canada, despite repeated jokes about becoming the “51st state,” has been spared such threats though its leadership is quietly strengthening ties with Europe as insurance against future tensions.

Europe Caught in the Middle

For Europe, the situation is deeply unsettling. The transatlantic security framework that has underpinned stability since World War II now feels fragile. While European leaders have gone out of their way to praise Trump and boost defense spending, the reality remains that US military power including its nuclear umbrella is still central to Europe’s security.

Greenland: A Test That Could Break NATO

Trump’s fixation on Greenland dates back to his first term, when he floated the idea of buying it outright. That proposal was dismissed, but the rhetoric has returned with new intensity. Senior aides have suggested Europe would not resist a US move, framing territorial expansion as a legitimate expression of power in a world where international law is increasingly sidelined.

For NATO, this is potentially existential. An alliance built on mutual defense would be tested like never before if one member openly threatened another’s territory.

Britain’s Cautious Silence

In the UK, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has confirmed he was not consulted ahead of the Venezuela operation. British officials have largely avoided public commentary, prompting criticism across the political spectrum. While London has joined European partners in expressing support for Denmark, there is little clarity on what comes next.

For now, Britain like much of the world is watching, waiting, and hoping that the storm passes without escalating into something far worse.